A SIMILARITY SCHEME FOR QUANTITATIVE FORECAST OF PRECIPITATION OF TYPHOONS     

钟元  潘劲松  朱红  陈卫锋  陈世春  梁明珠 《热带气象学报(英文版)》2012,18(3):322-331

A quantitative scheme is put forward in our work of forecasting the storm rainfall of typhoons for specific sites.Using the initial parameters,weather situations and physical quantities as well as numerical weather prediction products,the scheme constructs multivariate,objective and similarity criteria for environmental factors for the time between the current and forthcoming moment within the domain of forecast.Through defining a non-linear similarity index,this work presents a comprehensive assessment of the similarity between historical samples of typhoons and those being forecast in terms of continuous dynamic states under the multivariate criteria in order to identify similar samples.The historical rainfall records of the similar samples are used to run weighted summarization of the similarity index to determine site-specific and quantitative forecasts of future typhoon rainfall.Samples resembling the typhoon being forecast are selected by defining a non-linear similarity index composed of multiple criteria.Trial tests have demonstrated that this scheme has positive prediction skill.  相似文献   

海南岛地形对局地海风环流结构影响的数值模拟   总被引：3，自引：1，他引：2  

杨秋彦  苗峻峰  王语卉 《海洋学报》2017,39(3):24-43

本文利用WRF模式对2014年5月25日发生在海南的一次海风过程进行了数值模拟,通过地形敏感性试验,探讨了海南岛地形对局地海风环流结构的影响。结果表明:控制试验（CNTL）海风于15时左右达到强盛。无地形试验（FLAT）中,水平方向上,海风持续时间缩短,南、北、西向海风向内陆传播距离变短1~5 km,海风强度减弱1 m/s左右,海风动能及辐合强度在沿海地区及西南山区存在大值衰减区;垂直方向上,海风碰撞位置向西、北方向移动,高空回流高度降低,海风厚度减小,垂直环流强度减弱2~6 m2/s2,海风锋附近的垂直速度减小10 cm/s以上。谷风对海风同相叠加作用的消失也使得海风强度减弱。其主要影响机制为:在动力方面,由山脉屏障作用引起的海风强迫抬升、绕流等增强作用消失;在热力方面,地表吸收净辐射减少,导致其向大气中释放的感热、潜热通量等各项均减少约9%,这种改变造成了海陆之间温度、气压差的减小,最终造成了海风的减弱。此外,通过两组削山试验,发现海拔高度降低区辐合范围、强度及动能均减小,同时海风垂直环流结构也相应发生改变,其中移去黎母山脉（RMLM）对海风环流结构的影响大于移去五指山脉（RMWZ）。  相似文献   

2013年春季一次强飑线过程中尺度特征研究     

吴瑞姣  黎玥君  林永辉 《热带气象学报》2023,(4):522-535

运用多种观测数据,结合WRF模式分析了2013年3月19日发生在黔湘地区一次飑线形成期的中尺度特征。（1）此次飑线发生在高空500 hPa槽前的西南气流中,地面冷锋附近。环境风为西南向,且垂直于飑线长轴的分量小于沿着飑线长轴的分量。（2）飑线东、西两段存在显著差异：东段所在环境干燥,下沉对流有效位能DCAPE大,故雷暴大风强而短时强降水弱,对流单体初始于锋区及冷空气一侧,呈碎块状分布;西段环境湿润,短时强降水和冰雹集中,对流单体出现于地面锋区附近中尺度辐合线内,辐合线持久,其上辐合中心处不断有单体新生。（3）此次过程有重力波作用,且飑线西段重力波特征更明显。急流中的波动与中尺度辐合线相交,波动上升气流叠加辐合线上升运动,引起对流发生并迅猛发展,使得对流单体趋向于沿着波动等振幅面排列成带状,进而形成飑线。（4）旧单体南、北两侧均有新对流单体发生：北侧新单体高、低层重力波反相位叠加,对流受到抑制;南侧的新单体高、低层波动同相,上升气流加强,对流得以发展;新旧单体不断迭代更新,飑线整体向东南传播。  相似文献   

浙江省短时强降水的时空分布特征     

俞佩 《气候与环境研究》2022,27(3):397-407

利用2010～2019年浙江省基准气象站和自动气象站逐小时降水的观测资料,对浙江省短时强降水的时空分布特征进行了统计分析,结果表明:1）2010 ～2019年浙江短时强降水累计发生频次为72601站次,随雨强增大呈指数式衰减。2）短时强降水空间分布不均匀,沿海向内陆发生频次减少,出现频次最高的地区位于温州西南部。夏半年随时间推进和影响系统演变,短时强降水的空间分布亦存在差异:5～6月浙西地区短时强降水多发,7月短时强降水全省分散分布无明显的区域集中特征,8～10月则主要在沿海地区多发。3）总体而言短时强降水的日变化峰值出现在17:00（北京时间,下同）,且高强度短时强降水更倾向发生在午后到傍晚时段。夏秋季节短时强降水在午后到傍晚最为多发,峰值出现在17:00至18:00,这与副热带高压强盛,午后到傍晚热力和不稳定条件好,易触发强对流天气有关;春季除午后到傍晚外夜间和凌晨亦为短时强降水多发时段,可能与低空急流多在夜间和早晨发展加强有关。短时强降水的月变化特征呈现类双峰型分布,8月最为多发（26.0%）（主要由台风降水造成）,其次为6月和7月。不同强度的短时强降水月变化特征存在较明显差异。而短时强降水的年际分布不均,2015年之后年际变化幅度增大,其中 2016 年短时强降水发生频次最高达8728站次,2017 年为发生频次最低仅5581站次。  相似文献   

Erratum to: The comparative effects of frictional convergence and vertical wind shear on the interior asymmetries of a tropical cyclone     

Xingyou Huang  Xiaoping Tu  Hongyan Zhu 《Natural Hazards》2015,75(1):1007-1007

  相似文献   

Assessment of rice yield loss due to torrential rain: a case study of Yuhang County, Zhejiang Province, China   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

Weiping Lou  Lihong Wu  Haiyan Chen  Zongwei Ji  Yongfei Sun 《Natural Hazards》2012,60(2):311-320

This study adopts a loss assessment and indemnity approach for rice crops at risk of flooding in Yuhang County, Zhejiang Province. Employing a hydrological model for simulating floods and a reduction model for predicting rice yield, the relationship between the rate of reduction in the rice yield and precipitation is discussed. We argue that the yield reduction rate can be assessed according to the amount of precipitation and designed a weather-based indemnity index for agricultural insurance purposes in Zhejiang Province. With geographic information system technology, the yield reduction rate and weather-based indemnity index were refined and found to effectively reduce the shortcomings of traditional agricultural insurance, i.e., moral hazard, large error in assessing disaster loss and high basis risk. The validity of the method was verified by the amount of rice lost due to No. 16 typhoon Krosa in 2007, and the results show that the proposed method can well simulate the reduction rate of rice yield according to precipitation data.  相似文献   

Numerical simulation of the sudden rainstorm associated with the remnants of Typhoon Meranti (2010)     

周玲丽  杜惠良  翟国庆  王东海 《大气科学进展》2013,30(5):1353-1372

The Advanced Research Weather Forecasting (ARW) model was used to simulate the sudden heavy rainstorm associated with the remnants of Typhoon Meranti in September 2010. The results showed that the heavy rainfall was produced when the remnant clouds redeveloped suddenly, and the redevelopment was caused by rapid growth of micro/mesoscale convective systems (MCSs). As cold air intruded into the warm remnant clouds, the atmosphere became convectively unstable and frontogenesis happened due to strong wind shear between weak northerly flow and strong southwesterly flow in the lower levels. Under frontogenesis-forcing and warm-air advection stimulation in updrafts, vertical convection developed intensely inside the remnant clouds, with MCSs forming and maturing along the front. The genesis and development of MCSs was due to the great progress vertical vorticity made. The moist isentropic surface became slantwise as atmospheric baroclinity intensified when cold air intruded, which reduced the convective instability of the air.Meanwhile, vertical wind shear increased because the north cold air caused the wind direction to turn from south to north with height. In accordance with slantwise vorticity development (SVD), vertical vorticity would develop vigorously and contribute greatly to MCSs. Buoyancy, the pressure gradient, and the lifting of cold air were collectively the source of kinetic energy for rainfall. The low-level southwesterly jet from the western margin of the Western Pacific Subtropical High transported water and heat to remnant clouds. Energy bursts and continuous water vapor transportation played a major role in producing intense rainfall in a very short period of time.  相似文献   

2004年西北太平洋热带气旋的活动特点与成因研究   总被引：2，自引：4，他引：2  

董美莹  薛根元  郑沛群 《热带气象学报》2006,22(5):498-504

对2004年台风汛期西北太平洋热带气旋的活动特点进行研究总结，进而对其成因做了分析。结果指出：2004年西北太平洋热带气旋主要特点是生成总数较常年略偏多，热带气旋生命史普遍较长、：生成时间相对集中、生成源地偏东，转向路径偏多，登陆气旋数多于常年平均值，登陆地段集中且偏北，集中在华东到日本一带。其成因在于：（1）副高面积偏大、强度偏强、位置偏北且西伸脊偏西，同时副高分布形态多呈块状，使得2004年台风的高频活动区向北偏移，直接对华东到日本一带造成威胁，乃至正面登陆影响；（2）澳大利亚高压强大，越赤道气流强，赤道辐合带辐合偏强、位置偏东，造成台风活动比较活跃且源地偏东；（3）西风带环流经向度较常年偏大而且副高多呈块状分布，东西两环副高之间形成的鞍型场有利于台风过此通道北上转向，导致转向台风偏多。  相似文献   

宁波市台风灾情评估和基于层次分析法的风险评估   总被引：6，自引：2，他引：6  

顾小丽  陈有利  钱燕珍  朱佳敏  蒋璐璐 《热带气象学报》2018,34(4):489-498

筛选了1956—2016年间对宁波地区影响大、具有较完整灾情记录的台风个例30个,分析了台风灾情特征,并进行灾情评估;利用模糊算法和层次分析法,建立宁波地区台风风险评估模型。结果表明:近年来台风导致的死亡人数、倒塌房屋数量、水利和农作物受灾呈下降趋势;但是经济损失越来越大,浙江登陆台风造成养殖业的损失也有增大趋势。实际灾情指数(ADI)达到1级特重的台风有4个,达到2级(严重)及以上的有9个,ADI总体呈减小趋势。风险评估指数(RAI)与实际灾情指数(ADI)的相关系数为0.78,二者等级的一致率为73%;不一致的样本中,2000年之前风险评估等级小于灾情等级,2000年之后风险评估等级大于灾情等级。风险评估指数RAI和直接经济损失率的相关系数为0.7。业务中,可根据风险评估模型计算即将影响台风的RAI,利用直接经济损失率与RAI的拟合方程或者相近RAI的历史台风,估算其可能造成的经济损失。   相似文献   

1614号超强台风“莫兰蒂”在浙江沿海降水预报偏小的原因   总被引：1，自引：2，他引：1  

姚日升  涂小萍  俞芳芳  袁伟民  刘建勇 《热带气象学报》2018,34(5):637-644

通过对1614号超强台风“莫兰蒂”在浙江沿海降水预报偏小的原因进行回顾,同时基于美国NOAA HYSPLIT4模式,对“莫兰蒂”水汽来源进行轨迹聚类,针对不同路径来源的水汽在“莫兰蒂”浙江沿海降水中的贡献差异进行定量分析,结果表明:数值模式对“莫兰蒂”路径预报偏西、降水预报偏小,直接影响了主观预报服务中降水强度和落区的判断,而数值产品对中纬度环流作用和浙江沿海台风倒槽的预报出现偏差,同时对1616号台风“马勒卡”路径预报偏东,导致主观预报忽略了“莫兰蒂”与其他天气系统的相互作用,影响了对降水动力和水汽因子的判断,也是降水预报偏小的原因之一。“莫兰蒂”水汽输送有3支气流,分别来自东北、东南和偏南洋(海)面,后2支气流为主要水汽来源,浙北沿海以东南向水汽输送最重要,对水汽和降水贡献高达70%以上,表现出1616号台风“马勒卡”对“莫兰蒂”在浙北沿海降水的重要作用,而浙南沿海台风本体的偏南气流与“马勒卡”的东南气流的水汽输送作用相当。可见台风降水预报中,需要密切关注台风环流与其它天气系统以及双台风间的相互作用。   相似文献